DJIA - Short Term Look

Phisix market sentiments are affected by DJIA so I decided to post here how I see the DJIA movement.

Last March 14, 2008, DJIA is a long black candle closing with -194.65 but there was a smile on my face. Seeing blessing amidst adversity, I made a call that we are on our way to recovery and the possibility that we have already seen the bottom for as long as the line formed by connecting the lows of Jan 22, 2008 and March 22, 2008 (from our chart at the left, that is line 4) is not broken (post at Finance Manila forum Foreign Markets and Dow Futures Watch March 14, 2008). The next trading day, DJIA bounced from that line confirming that it is a valid support. On my notes I call it recovery line because that will bring us to recovery for as long as it holds.

But as prices zoom up fast and far from that line, I become a little cautious because once the DJIA drop, the magnitude might be big considering its distance to line 4. I was delighted to see a higher low formed last March 31, 2008. A steeper line to catch the DJIA was formed by connecting the lows of March 17, 2008 and March 31, 2008 (Line 1).

Today, DJIA closed 12,527.26 (-49.18) but I'm more interested to know the lowest for this will show how strong the support provided by line 1 which is our current short term look. The lowest registered today is 12,468.97 and line 1 crossed today at 12, 427.81. Meaning, our line 1 is still holding. Yipee! DJIA is still uptrend on the short term. Let's see tonight's DJIA if it will bounced from the line or pierced it. Line 1 will be crossing tonight at 12,469.76. This is the level to watch tonight. The low has more stories to tell than the closing.